2017年7月17日月曜日

Ministry of Finance's Pocketbook Records

Currently, many Japanese nobelists are born, but this is the result of technology investment in the 1980s and 1990s. From 20 years onwards, there will be no Nobel scholars from science in Japan.
Instead, I think that Chinese nobelogists will be frequent.

So, I have to increase science and technology budget · · ·.

"Research and development investment" 1% of GDP realized Achieve far. The final opportunity of FY 2006 budget? Promotion of commercialization, 900 billion yen increase in 3 years will come true
Http://newswitch.jp/p/9664
The Cabinet Office aims to capture the current budget for public works projects etc. to realize 1% of GDP ratio of government R & D investment. We will add technology introduction budget to existing measures and shift to business to accelerate social implementation of new technology. Measures are being invited from ministries and agencies towards the formation of the 2018 budget. The target investment amount is 6 trillion yen including the supplementary budget in fiscal 20. 300 billion yen annually and 900 billion yen in 3 years.
Government R & D investment has been stagnating for about 10 years, around 3,500 billion yen. The Cabinet Office has appealed an increase in investment with 1% of GDP relative to GDP in the Basic Science and Technology Plan, but it has not been realized. If we can not achieve an increase of 300 billion yen in fiscal 2006 budget, it will be calculated to include an increase of 450 billion yen in fiscal 2007 and fiscal 20. The battle against the 2006 budget may be the last increase opportunity. There is a chance of winning. Yoshio Yamawaki of the Cabinet Office Policy Officer explained that "In fiscal 2006, the Ministry of Finance agreed to achieve the target." (Obviously) "

Ah ~ ha ~ · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · ·

We will not object to raising government investment in R & D to 1% of GDP, but what will we do by incorporating "current budget for public works" instead?

In spite of merely increasing the budget for research and development investment additionally,
"If you increase R & D investment, reduce public works projects"
That's why.

Just in line with the philosophy of turning PB into surplus, the country usually dies.

The Ministry of Finance will lose Japan. Is it right now, it is in the midst of being lost.

That's why,
"Japan has lost due to the Ministry of Finance's Pocketbook Record"
In order to tell the fact that it is a posterity, I wrote "The Treasury Depression Theory (Tentative)".

Soon, the National Tax Service, which is the police force of the Treasury Department, will come to us. Is it said that it is prepared and written that the national tax is skipped from the beginning, "It comes early, it is the National Tax Agency" It is.

Nonetheless, I absolutely want to leave the fact that "Japan has lost due to the Ministry of Finance's Pocketbooking principle" in future generations.

Please listen to the Japanese citizens of the future.

Japan with the longest history in the world passed away due to the Ministry of Public Treasury's Pocketbook.

Reject the free gauge train!

When I visited Omura city the other day,
"Hakata is far from Tokyo"
It is impressive that I was saying that.

Omura station - Hakata station now takes at least 2 hours (usually more than 2 and a half hours) at the shortest. Anyway, there is Nagasaki Airport in Omura City, so it will feel that Tokyo (Haneda) is familiar.

Nonetheless, as the full standard Shinkansen delivers to Hakata, the situation will change.

Also, even in Saga prefecture, Ureshino Onsen and Takeo Onsen, which have already confirmed that stations can be established with full standards, are "Saga Prefecture". It is certain that you will benefit from Saga Prefecture if you develop from Shin Tosu to Takeo Onsen with full standards. Take the bullet train from Fukuoka airport and you can arrive at the hot spring in "Saga prefecture" in 30 minutes to 40 minutes!

However, "money (finance)" is a bottleneck by example. In such a time, the government with the mighty power of currency issuance right comes into play.

Shogo Moriyuki, the president of Saga Prefecture Federation of the LDP,
"If it comes up with a different financial burden scheme, it will be subject to discussion.If it is the same as before, it will be for a while (relaying conventional lines and Shinkansen) relay system"
I am talking.

A scheme of fiscal burden that is different from the past. It is not a difficult story, it lightens the burden of Saga Prefecture and develops the Nagasaki Shinkansen with full standards.

Improvement of ruling party Chairman Masayoshi Matsuyama of the Shinkansen Construction Promotion Project Team Review Committee, regarding the Nagasaki Shinkansen,
"I'd like to decide the maintenance policy of the Nagasaki route including whether to introduce FGT"
It shows the intention to decide the policy also during the month of August.

The conclusion to be made is clear. I will give up FTG and make a business plan of the full standard Nagasaki Shinkansen maintenance and relax the burden of Saga prefecture with "a different financial burden scheme".

Nevertheless, if FGT is introduced at the Nagasaki Shinkansen, Japan will not be able to develop a full-length Shinkansen again in the future. The Ministry of Finance's "exiled country policy" will be decisive.

I will ask politicians '"decisive judgment" to carry a bundle of citizens' sovereignty.

Japan going through the path to the lost country

Until 1997, Japan's GDP accounted for 17% of the world in one country. Japan at the time was certainly an "economic superpower."

However, due to "Ministry of Finance's" pocket money ", the Hashimoto administration implemented austerity measures such as consumption tax increase tax and public investment reduction in 1997. The Japanese economy will deflation.

On the other side where Japan's GDP grows under deflationary situation, the world economy is growing. The share of Japan's GDP in the world will drop to 5%.

Conversely, the proportion of China's GDP to the world has increased from 2% to 15%.

If this situation continues, the period of around 2040 will be the period when Japan's GDP accounts for 2% of the world and China's GDP will be ten times that of Japan. Military expenditure will have reached 20 times.

How should Japan confront the Communist party dictatorship that uses twenty times the military expenditure of Japan?

It is a cruel answer to not stand up. In this way, the future of our country will become commonly a Chinese nation. That is, it is a lost country.

By the way, how do we regain "homeland · Japan" as it has reached the era of the lost country? If the Imperial family is the "national body" itself of Japan itself, it may not be impossible to eliminate the state of the losing state.

So what if the Imperial family had already become famous at that time? It is impossible for us to regain Japan.

Last summer, as NHK's telop suddenly the news that "Emperor Emperor Emancipation abdicate" was reported, and when I came all over the country, I felt a sense of incompatibility. The first problem is the term "abandoned". "I thought that it was not a concession?"

Although it is a sense of incompatibility of the second, even if your Majesty becomes difficult to act due to physical condition etc., there is no need to take another assignment. We should regent it.

In the Imperial House Law,
"Article 16
(2) When the Emperor is unable to perform any act on national affairs by mental or physical illness or a serious accident, the regency shall be established by the conclusion of the Imperial Household Meeting. "
And it is written.

However, in reality, the story proceeded on the premise of "deferment". Is it saying, the assignment is made an established fact by the news report, and the environment which can not be backtraced is fostered.

2017年7月10日月曜日

"After all, the 'fiscal rebuilding target' is a mistake, why only this reason Why did the second LDP LDP stood up

On July 5, 28 LDP Liberal Democratic Representatives members made a recommendation of "Recommendations on fiscal policy necessary to achieve fiscal reconstruction while at the same time putting the Japanese economy on the growth path, completely withdrawing from deflationary recession" , The official residence (Secretary of the Deputy Chief Cabinet Secretariat Hagyuda) and the Liberal Democratic Party Executive Division (Special Assistant to Governor Nishimura).
The author believes that this proposal will be a "trump card" to regenerate the Japanese economy and make the fiscal health sound. In this paper, I would like to explain its contents and background.
■ poisoned arrow that is not yet pulled out
On June 9, the policy of the government budget that determines the direction of the Japanese economy was decided by the Cabinet as "political policy".
Toward this decision, the author, as a member of the Cabinet Secretariat in charge of economic policy,
"The old government policy is that the" discipline "of the budget is too severe, tax cuts and budget cuts are carried forward excessively, and as a result deflationary depression continues, which is exacerbating the financial situation, so we aim for true" fiscal reconstruction " Then temporarily relax the fiscal discipline, it is essential to thoroughly develop aggressive finance that will end deflation in the short term "
We continue to propose to the inside and outside the government repeated arguments.
As a result, some of such writings by the authors were adopted in this "skeleton". And the financial goal was clearly stated that "It is not merely a tax increase and budget cut, that is," just austerity ", but also the economy is grown and the burden of debt is reduced".
With this goal, even with the latest "bone", even in the latest "skeleton" it became possible to improve financial problems through enriching Japanese people - even the latest "skeleton" - the "primary balance surplus target" (or the PB goal Abbreviation of extreme discipline of abbreviation) was not lifted. In other words, "Poison target" that was driven into Japan by PB target was not pulled out.
For this reason, Japan still can not escape from deflation, and it is placed in a situation where it can not expect mid- to long-term fiscal improvement - the reason is as follows. (Abbreviated) "


First of all, I would like to understand the basic style of the Treasury Department, but it was clear to everyone's eyes that in the mid 1990's, Japan aged and social security expenditure increased.
Nonetheless, at that time Japan suffered from the collapse of the bubble and the total demand was already in short supply. The reason is that the company has been running debt repayment due to the collapse of the bubble and the people began to add bank deposits.

Both bank deposit and debt repayment, neither consumption nor investment. While citizens restrained "demand", social security expenditure increased due to the aging population was rather 僥 僥.
However, the Ministry of Finance (then the Ministry of Finance) did not think so.

"Social security expenditure will increase unnecessarily, in that case, we must cut down on other expenditure"
Based on the policy of public investment, defense expenditure, science and technology research expenses, education expenses, etc., essential expenditure for Japan's prosperity was reduced and suppressed.

"The gap between the supply and demand in the January-March quarter, plus the width is the size since just before the Lehman crisis

The supply-demand gap in the January-March quarter released by the BOJ on Friday was plus 0.79%, and the positive width increased by 0.22 points from the October-December period (plus 0.57%) in 2016. The supply-demand gap will be positive for the third consecutive quarter from the July-September quarter of 16th, the positive range since the April-June quarter of 2008 (plus 0.96%) just before the Lehman shock. In addition to improvements in capital side capacity utilization rates such as production facilities, labor supply and demand has further tightened.
The supply-demand gap shows the demand-supply ratio of the economy as a whole. When the figure becomes positive, it indicates excess demand and the price tends to rise. The Bank of Japan publishes estimates of the supply-demand gap every three months. The BOJ expects prices to rise toward the target of 2% against the backdrop of improvements in the macroeconomic supply-demand gap and the rise in the expected inflation rate in the medium to long term. (Abbreviated) "

Ah ~ ha ~ · · · · ·.

In the first place, it is strange when the supply-demand gap (= nominal GDP - potential GDP) becomes positive. The fact that the supply-demand gap is positive means that we are "purchasing unproductive goods and services."

In the example of the previous athlete,
"If you deduct the latest time (example: 9 seconds) from the maximum potential time that you can potentially offer (eg 10 seconds), the value has become positive (ex: 1 second)"
It is a story.

Just a moment, it means that the fact that "= maximum potential time - latest time" has become positive means that the thing which was regarded as "the maximum potential time" was not so in fact.

Similarly, the fact that the supply-demand gap pluses means that the potential GDP is nothing "maximum value of GDP that can be produced" (actually, it is nothing).

Moreover, since the GDP deflator is minus (apparently deflation), the BOJ's potential GDP is omitted because it eliminates the productivity improvement factor of TFP, "the supply-demand gap is positive for the third consecutive quarter! It will be such a strange situation that such as "It is.

Whether it is the Bank of Japan or the Cabinet Office, the current definition of "potential GDP" is incorrect and gives misunderstandings to citizens and politicians.

As advocated by Mr. Yasuki Aoki, the government has to change the term "average GDP", which expresses concepts correctly, for "latent GDP of average concept".

Let's change "latent GDP" to "average GDP"

"When pulling a dictionary, the meaning of latency is written as" hidden inside and not appearing in the table ".
On the other hand, the average is "to eliminate the difference, a value equal to the target number (amount)".
As general common sense, latency and average are not synonymous.
It seems that there are rarely people who think that their "potential ability" to "demonstrate on average".
However, the definition of latent GDP released by the Cabinet Office and the Bank of Japan is out of this general common sense.
"Potential GDP" is said to be "real average real GDP".
This definition is based on the economic view of the mainstream economics "economy progresses on average on the equilibrium orbit", but it is the root of misunderstanding to people.
Indeed, this definition is used to estimate the output gap and has a profound effect on the formulation of economic policy.
In politicians, economic people, and mass media, it seems that few people are aware of the terminology of the office which means "latency is mean".
I do not think that latent GDP means average GDP and that potential growth rate is average growth rate.
The majority of people think "latent" in a general sense, "latent GDP is a wall (limit) that can not be exceeded by real GDP", or "the potential growth rate is the ceiling of economic growth" It accidentally recognizes it. (Abbreviated) "

Dr. Aoki 's column has detailed explanations about the fatal problem of "latent GDP of average concept" which is one of the "deflation index" of Japan, so please read by all means.

In short, first of all, "latent GDP"
"GDP that can be produced when Japanese labor and facilities are fully operational"
It is originally.

The potential GDP based on the above idea is called "maximum potential conceptual GDP".

However, in the world of economics, unexpectedly the latent GDP has changed to the concept of "average of GDP produced in the past". In fact, the Cabinet Office, regarding latent GDP,
"Realizable GDP when introducing production factors on average on the historical trend of the economy"
And it is defined.

No, wait a moment! For example, as I was an athlete,
"The maximum time you can give is the average time of past races"
And, if it is said, everyone will be "Ha?!" My best time in the past is the race time when it was literally "the best time". My running running beating the highest time should be "latent running power".

However, in the world of economic "academics", the potential GDP has been changed as "past average".

Moreover, latent GDP changes according to "Labor input + capital input + Total factor productivity (TFP)", but also in Dr. Aoki's column, the estimate of the potential GDP of the BOJ is TFP improvement of productivity We are "ignoring".

As a result, the magnitude of potential GDP is a relationship of "latent GDP of maximum concept> average concept of Cabinet Office> average BOJ concept".

Ministry of Finance's Pocketbook Records

Currently, many Japanese nobelists are born, but this is the result of technology investment in the 1980s and 1990s. From 20 years onwards, ...